2009 Ashes 1st Test Team Predictions

[Ljp86]

Australia

1. Phil Jaques
2. Matthew Hayden
3. Ricky Ponting (c)
4. Michael Clarke
5. Michael Hussey
6. Andrew Symonds
7. Brad Haddin (wk)
8. Brett Lee
9. Stuart Clark
10. Mitchell Johnson
11. Stuart MacGill

Rest of Squad:

Chris Rogers
David Hussey
Shaun Tait
Ben Hilfenhaus
Luke Ronchi
Beau Casson


I still reckon that Matthew Hayden will be playing by the next Ashes, Hayden has been in some pretty good form and barring injuries he is good enough to keep his place in the line-up. I don't think much of the starting eleven will change from now till the Ashes but I may be wrong. Should Hayden not be there, Chris Rogers will come in to open the batting, that's really a no-brainer.

MacGill will probably be there also, he is getting on now but there's really no-one else coming up, none of the young spinners stood out last season and the two Australian contracted young spinners, Dan Cullen and Cullen Bailey went backwards very, very badly. If MacGill is absent then Casson will probably be thrown in the deep end, after that it's very much a raffle.

The rest of the squad is pretty straightforward. Chris Rogers as the back-up opener should Hayden not be there, I think it would be rather stupid if he wasn't a part of the travelling party should the Hayden/Jaques partnership still be in operation. Rogers could also bat down the order if it is really needed. David Hussey is the other back-up batsman, Hussey was very, very good last summer for Victoria and he really deserves to be in the mix for a place and if he has another good summer in 08/09, he'll be right in the mix for that trip to England.

I have Shaun Tait as one of the travelling fast bowlers. Despite Tait struggling mentally, he is still one of Australia's best bowlers even though he can be wayward at times. Tait is almost certain to play for South Australia this season and some good form should see him on the plane for the Ashes. You just can't not pick him, his raw pace is exciting and Ponting is a huge fan of having him and Brett Lee opening the bowling and bowling thunderbolts, ala Lillee and Thomson 30 years ago. I don't think many opposition batters would be very fond of having to face Brett Lee and Shaun Tait bowling 150+ km/hr.

Ben Hilfenhaus is the other quick. Hilf had an ordinary summer for Tasmania but his selection for the West Indies (later withdrawn - injured again I think) shows the selectors still have him in the mix for a berth. If Ben can have a solid season for Tasmania this summer I think he'll be flying as well. He swings the ball nicely and the English conditions would suit him right down to a tee. Hilfenhaus would generate a lot of outswing (away from right hander) on the English pitches and he would be a very handy weapon to have.

Luke Ronchi goes across as the second wicketkeeper. Ronchi is far and away the second best keeper in the country, the rest just don't mount an argument to even consider them for the Ashes tour, the one exception could be Tim Paine but he is still only finding his feet in first-class cricket for Tasmania. Ronchi is a very agressive and attacking batsman who is a clean and excellent striker of the ball. It's a shame he never got to fire during the IPL, he is almost Gilchrist-esque with his power hitting. I think Ronchi holds the record for the fastest Australian domestic century and also hit a century off around 50-odd balls in a Pura Cup game. He is awesome to watch when he gets going.

Finally, Beau Casson is the second spinner. Casson had a decent year for NSW without doing anything special. Casson gets a spot because we really have no-one else. As good as Bryce McGain is, he's not young anymore and I think that debuting a 36/37 year old is not the right way to go. Australia might struggle to get two years out of MaGain and then we have to hunt for another replacement. The other challengers for Casson's spot consist of Aaron Heal and Xavier Doherty although both those players are more suited to one-day/Twenty20 cricket.

That's my eleven and the squad in my opinion. No doubt there will be some changes from now till then. A lot can happen in 12 months and the Australian selectors know that.


England

1. Alistair Cook
2. Andrew Strauss
3. Michael Vaughan (c)
4. Kevin Pietersen
5. Ian Bell
6. Paul Collingwood
7. Tim Ambrose (wk)
8. Ryan Sidebottom
9. Stuart Broad
10. Matthew Hoggard
11. Monty Panesar

Rest of Squad

Owais Shah
Matt Prior
James Anderson


Not too much change with the English side. James Anderson is a massive dud so Matthew Hoggard comes in. His swing hurt Australia last time and being such a good swinger of the ball, he is hard to ignore. The same goes for Ryan Sidebottom, has good pace and is also moves the ball well. Like Hilfenhaus for Australia, Hoggard and Sidebottom are very well suited to their home conditions. Stuart Broad is the third pace bowler with Panesar as the spinner. Panesar isn't in too much trouble as far as holding his place is concerned, there doesn't look to be many spinners coming through to challenge Monty for his place in the team although I could be wrong.

The batting is pretty straightforward. Cook and Strauss to open, followed by the usual suspects. I think Vaughan and Pietersen may come under a little pressure if they don't perform leading up to and including the Ashes. Pistersen hasn't scored a lot of runs in tests or the one-dayers, his average in both has been dropping consistently for the last year or so. Vaughan is always under pressure for his place, the media are always on him over there whenever things aren't going his way.

Still no Flintoff for mine, I don't think his body is right and he continues to be plagued by injuries, he's a long way off returning in my opinion. Collingwood does enough as the fifth bowler anyway with Pietersen and Bell to bowl if they get desperate. I don't think they are missing him all that much to be honest.

Owais Shah is the back-up batsman. He'll come in if any batter is injured or is dropped. Ian Bell is the batting utility in that side and should any of the top four get injured or fall out of favour then Bell will take their spot with Shah slipping into number five.

Matt Prior is the second keeper but England's track record with keepers is all over the shop, it could be anyone really. Ambrose and Prior might not be even in the picture one year from now and another name no-one has heard of will be keeping wickets. They might do a backflip and bring back Geraint Jones, Paul Nixon or even Alec Stewart.

James Anderson will probably be the back-up quick bowler. I don't rate him but the England selectors seem to and he'll no doubt replace one of Sidebottom/Hoggard/Broad should something happen. Australia will be glad to see him playing and should feast on his Four and Twenty pies.

That's my take on things one year out. No doubt it will change, a year is a long time on cricket.

[Ben Mathews #4]

I agree with all of that. Well done Ljp, top post.



EDIT:

Originally Posted by Ljp86

Finally, Beau Casson is the second spinner. Casson had a decent year for NSW without doing anything special. Casson gets a spot because we really have no-one else. As good as Bryce McGain is, he's not young anymore and I think that debuting a 36/37 year old is not the right way to go. Australia might struggle to get two years out of MaGain and then we have to hunt for another replacement. The other challengers for Casson's spot consist of Aaron Heal and Xavier Doherty although both those players are more suited to one-day/Twenty20 cricket.

Warney

[loopy_cam]

Originally Posted by Ljp86

Australia

1. Phil Jaques
2. Matthew Hayden
3. Ricky Ponting (c)
4. Michael Clarke
5. Michael Hussey
6. Andrew Symonds
7. Brad Haddin (wk)
8. Brett Lee
9. Stuart Clark
10. Mitchell Johnson
11. Stuart MacGill

Rest of Squad:

Chris Rogers
David Hussey
Shaun Tait
Ben Hilfenhaus
Luke Ronchi
Beau Casson

I'd change Casson for Heal as I believe he'll have a big summer. Also, I'd put Watson in there instead of Rogers. Watson can open if needed and he gives great versatility. Also I'd put Johnson at 9 and Clark at 10.

All in all a good squad. MacGill needs to be playing and in form though.

[Ljp86]

Originally Posted by loopy_cam

I'd change Casson for Heal as I believe he'll have a big summer. Also, I'd put Watson in there instead of Rogers. Watson can open if needed and he gives great versatility. Also I'd put Johnson at 9 and Clark at 10.

All in all a good squad. MacGill needs to be playing and in form though.

Heal is a good bowler but he is more suited to one-dayers at the present time. However, with Hogg retiring from first-class cricket he will get more of an opportunity in the Sheffield Shield so hopefully he will have more of an influence. Heal is right up there as far as the one-dayers are concerned. With Hogg retiring, the one-day spinner position is up for grabs and I'd say that Heal and Xavier Doherty from Tasmania are the frontrunners for that position. The selectors will probably go with an older type player, the dud known as Nathan Hauritz comes to mind. I wouldn't mind seeing Heal in there but he hasn't done a lot in the longer form of the game to really press for a spot.

Watson isn't a test player in my opinion. He has been a very good one-day player but I don't think he is suited to test cricket. If he did play, he'd bat at 6, I really couldn't see him opening the batting with Phil Jaques. Watson could open in the one-dayers but not in tests.

Agree with Johnson at 9 and Clark at 10, not sure why I put Clark at 9, Johnson is a better bat.

[D.K]

Originally Posted by Ljp86

Heal is a good bowler but he is more suited to one-dayers at the present time. However, with Hogg retiring from first-class cricket he will get more of an opportunity in the Sheffield Shield so hopefully he will have more of an influence. Heal is right up there as far as the one-dayers are concerned. With Hogg retiring, the one-day spinner position is up for grabs and I'd say that Heal and Xavier Doherty from Tasmania are the frontrunners for that position. The selectors will probably go with an older type player, the dud known as Nathan Hauritz comes to mind. I wouldn't mind seeing Heal in there but he hasn't done a lot in the longer form of the game to really press for a spot.

Watson isn't a test player in my opinion. He has been a very good one-day player but I don't think he is suited to test cricket. If he did play, he'd bat at 6, I really couldn't see him opening the batting with Phil Jaques. Watson could open in the one-dayers but not in tests.

Agree with Johnson at 9 and Clark at 10, not sure why I put Clark at 9, Johnson is a better bat.

Hauritz constantly is brought up when discussing Australia's replacement for Warne, which worries the heck out of me. We are in some dire problems in the spin department

Watson will at least be in the squad, he is rated very highly in the CA admin office. Can do an alright job at frist class level in the longer version. But I wouldnt want to see him out there

well we can change Stuie Macgill at 11.

Who else can we pick?


..and don't say Warney

[Ben Mathews #4]

With MacGill now gone, we have to consider whether to play 4 quicks instead of the regular set-up.

1. Phil Jaques
2. Simon Katich
3. Ricky Ponting (c)
4. Michael Hussey
5. Michael Clarke
6. Andrew Symonds
7. Brad Haddin (wk)
8. Brett Lee
9. Mitchell Johnson
10. Stuart Clark
11. Shaun Tait

12. Shaun Marsh
13. David Hussey
14. Brad Hodge
15. Luke Ronchi
16. Ben Hilfenhaus/Ashley Noffke/Doug Bollinger/Shane Watson
16. Beau Casson/Aaron Heal/Nathan Hauritz/Dan Cullen/Bryce McGain/Cullen Bailey/Cameron White.

[Tassietigersrule]

Originally Posted by Ljp86

Australia

1. Phil Jaques
2. Matthew Hayden
3. Ricky Ponting (c)
4. Michael Clarke
5. Michael Hussey
6. Andrew Symonds
7. Brad Haddin (wk)
8. Brett Lee
9. Stuart Clark
10. Mitchell Johnson
11. Stuart MacGill

Rest of Squad:

Chris Rogers
David Hussey
Shaun Tait
Ben Hilfenhaus
Luke Ronchi
Beau Casson


I still reckon that Matthew Hayden will be playing by the next Ashes, Hayden has been in some pretty good form and barring injuries he is good enough to keep his place in the line-up. I don't think much of the starting eleven will change from now till the Ashes but I may be wrong. Should Hayden not be there, Chris Rogers will come in to open the batting, that's really a no-brainer.

MacGill will probably be there also, he is getting on now but there's really no-one else coming up, none of the young spinners stood out last season and the two Australian contracted young spinners, Dan Cullen and Cullen Bailey went backwards very, very badly. If MacGill is absent then Casson will probably be thrown in the deep end, after that it's very much a raffle.

The rest of the squad is pretty straightforward. Chris Rogers as the back-up opener should Hayden not be there, I think it would be rather stupid if he wasn't a part of the travelling party should the Hayden/Jaques partnership still be in operation. Rogers could also bat down the order if it is really needed. David Hussey is the other back-up batsman, Hussey was very, very good last summer for Victoria and he really deserves to be in the mix for a place and if he has another good summer in 08/09, he'll be right in the mix for that trip to England.

I have Shaun Tait as one of the travelling fast bowlers. Despite Tait struggling mentally, he is still one of Australia's best bowlers even though he can be wayward at times. Tait is almost certain to play for South Australia this season and some good form should see him on the plane for the Ashes. You just can't not pick him, his raw pace is exciting and Ponting is a huge fan of having him and Brett Lee opening the bowling and bowling thunderbolts, ala Lillee and Thomson 30 years ago. I don't think many opposition batters would be very fond of having to face Brett Lee and Shaun Tait bowling 150+ km/hr.

Ben Hilfenhaus is the other quick. Hilf had an ordinary summer for Tasmania but his selection for the West Indies (later withdrawn - injured again I think) shows the selectors still have him in the mix for a berth. If Ben can have a solid season for Tasmania this summer I think he'll be flying as well. He swings the ball nicely and the English conditions would suit him right down to a tee. Hilfenhaus would generate a lot of outswing (away from right hander) on the English pitches and he would be a very handy weapon to have.

Luke Ronchi goes across as the second wicketkeeper. Ronchi is far and away the second best keeper in the country, the rest just don't mount an argument to even consider them for the Ashes tour, the one exception could be Tim Paine but he is still only finding his feet in first-class cricket for Tasmania. Ronchi is a very agressive and attacking batsman who is a clean and excellent striker of the ball. It's a shame he never got to fire during the IPL, he is almost Gilchrist-esque with his power hitting. I think Ronchi holds the record for the fastest Australian domestic century and also hit a century off around 50-odd balls in a Pura Cup game. He is awesome to watch when he gets going.

Finally, Beau Casson is the second spinner. Casson had a decent year for NSW without doing anything special. Casson gets a spot because we really have no-one else. As good as Bryce McGain is, he's not young anymore and I think that debuting a 36/37 year old is not the right way to go. Australia might struggle to get two years out of MaGain and then we have to hunt for another replacement. The other challengers for Casson's spot consist of Aaron Heal and Xavier Doherty although both those players are more suited to one-day/Twenty20 cricket.

That's my eleven and the squad in my opinion. No doubt there will be some changes from now till then. A lot can happen in 12 months and the Australian selectors know that.


England

1. Alistair Cook
2. Andrew Strauss
3. Michael Vaughan (c)
4. Kevin Pietersen
5. Ian Bell
6. Paul Collingwood
7. Tim Ambrose (wk)
8. Ryan Sidebottom
9. Stuart Broad
10. Matthew Hoggard
11. Monty Panesar

Rest of Squad

Owais Shah
Matt Prior
James Anderson


Not too much change with the English side. James Anderson is a massive dud so Matthew Hoggard comes in. His swing hurt Australia last time and being such a good swinger of the ball, he is hard to ignore. The same goes for Ryan Sidebottom, has good pace and is also moves the ball well. Like Hilfenhaus for Australia, Hoggard and Sidebottom are very well suited to their home conditions. Stuart Broad is the third pace bowler with Panesar as the spinner. Panesar isn't in too much trouble as far as holding his place is concerned, there doesn't look to be many spinners coming through to challenge Monty for his place in the team although I could be wrong.

The batting is pretty straightforward. Cook and Strauss to open, followed by the usual suspects. I think Vaughan and Pietersen may come under a little pressure if they don't perform leading up to and including the Ashes. Pistersen hasn't scored a lot of runs in tests or the one-dayers, his average in both has been dropping consistently for the last year or so. Vaughan is always under pressure for his place, the media are always on him over there whenever things aren't going his way.

Still no Flintoff for mine, I don't think his body is right and he continues to be plagued by injuries, he's a long way off returning in my opinion. Collingwood does enough as the fifth bowler anyway with Pietersen and Bell to bowl if they get desperate. I don't think they are missing him all that much to be honest.

Owais Shah is the back-up batsman. He'll come in if any batter is injured or is dropped. Ian Bell is the batting utility in that side and should any of the top four get injured or fall out of favour then Bell will take their spot with Shah slipping into number five.

Matt Prior is the second keeper but England's track record with keepers is all over the shop, it could be anyone really. Ambrose and Prior might not be even in the picture one year from now and another name no-one has heard of will be keeping wickets. They might do a backflip and bring back Geraint Jones, Paul Nixon or even Alec Stewart.

James Anderson will probably be the back-up quick bowler. I don't rate him but the England selectors seem to and he'll no doubt replace one of Sidebottom/Hoggard/Broad should something happen. Australia will be glad to see him playing and should feast on his Four and Twenty pies.

That's my take on things one year out. No doubt it will change, a year is a long time on cricket.

Well like aussieman said, MacGill out. Casson will probably go in. That means you'd pick another spinner as the next backup. As far as I know, no cricket fan outside of Victoria has suggested McGain should be in there. I'm backing that Aaron Heal has established himself in all forms and is ready for the 2008/09 season to really fire. Him as backup. I'd replace Rogers with the surprise packet in Simon Katich. I also worry about Shaun Tait, his action puts so much pressure on his back and you really do wonder whether he has the fitness and discipline to bowl fast but at the same time bowl accurately. If not him, Doug Bollinger of Ashley Noffke to come in.
As for England, I don't know whether Michael Vaughan will be there. So you could have Ian Bell at no.3 and Owais Shah at 5. And if you're looking at batting orders, then Broad would go ahead of Sidebottom. Broad has potential to be an all-rounder in the future, he played alot of his cricket as a junior as an opening batsman but it was only a sudden growth spurt that he really developed into a really good bowler. He's still to develop physically as well.
I don't know too much about fringe players that England have but Simon Davies is a wicketkeeper-batsman who England say is a beauty. Maybe him for Matt Prior, whose keeping it seems is not really up to scratch.

[D.K]

Tait is not up to international cricket on a physical and mental state.

Cook, Strauss, Vaughan, Pietersen, Collingwood, Bell, Ambrose, Flintoff, Broad, Sidebottom, Panesar

Next in line: Bopara (Dud but well liked), Hoggard, Pattinson

As for the Aussies, rogers wont be there, even if he is good enough to be in the side his change of state will have finished his test hopes

With Australia playing either Casson or 4 quicks we can expect some flat pitches in England possibly offering some turn late in the game as the Aussie quicks will be smashed around in the 1st innings and Panesar is set to be far and away the best spinner of the series, will be the first time ever probably the English curators might be tempted to put some spin into the pitches