OurTimeWillCome
Member
Well, the wait is nearly over for the return leg of the Ashes from 2009. A chance for redemption for some players, while, equally, some players face the possibility of the termination of their playing careers if the cards don't fall their way.
Most people, both at home and abroad, are having England as clear favourites on the basis that England has had a sound preparation and a settled side, while also noting that Australia appear to be 'in disarray'.
Who has the most pressure on them?
This is an interesting question. On one hand, Ricky Ponting would be excused if he said he feels a mountain of pressure, although, I don't think it is intense as it was pre the 2006/07 Ashes. I feel Ponting will retire from all forms of cricket after the ODI World Cup - our next 18 months is a full fixture list with away tours to Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and South Africa and home fixtures against Zimbabwe, New Zealand and India. That is all in the next 12 months - and throw in the World Cup as well. Not exactly a fixture list that would have you excited, purely because of the fact that you are likely to be exhausted by the halfway mark. Totally absurd - but that is for another thread.
If Australia is to lose, the selectors are likely to say, 'right, we need to rebuild the team, so anyone over 30 is out'. They may well say that if Australia win, but the consquences for players like Ponting, Hussey, Katich are likely to be severe if the Ashes are not won. That is not necessary due to their performance in the series, merely it reflects that fact that all 3 are 35 or more and not likely to feature in to much more international cricket.
Conversely, England appear to be a team on the up - presenting a legitimate claim for the number 1 spot in the next 18 months. In many people's eyes, this series is their best chance for a long time. Failure to win here would be seen as a failure and could well have long reaching consquences with regards to team management and selection.
So, the pressure is on both teams, perhaps, collectively more on England than Australia, simply because many people believe Australia to be at a low ebb.
England's Weakpoints
One could easily argue that England got lucky in South Africa, in a series, they probably deserved to lose 3-1. A comprehensive beating in anyones eyes. Instead, a 1-1 draw was the result. After that it was relatively easy victories against Bangladesh and Pakistan.
The first point of reference is England's 4 man attack. Andy Flower, in the last annual edition of Wisden, said that England's 5 man attack gave them a distinct advantage over Australia's 4 man attack in the 2009 Ashes. Yet, Flower has resorted to a 4 man attack that is probably somewhat over-rated.
It is here that Australia must focus their resources. It is where we have a clear advantage; we have 5 bowlers.
James Anderson is a weak link - who averages 40+ with the ball against Australia.
England's best bowler is Swann, however, overseas finger spinners generally struggle in Australia. If Swann is to struggle here, then England's 4 man attack will fall apart at the seams, as exhaustion hinders the seamers and injury takes its toll.
Australia can break England's back if they neutralise Swann. Of that I have no doubt. This would also impact on England's batsmen, as they become less effective due to fatigue if they spend hours in the field.
Overall
I think Australia have been somewhat under-rated in the press, and this may be to our advantage. We have also come off some hard cricket against India.
I wouldn't discount our chances just yet.
Australia to win 3-0.
Most people, both at home and abroad, are having England as clear favourites on the basis that England has had a sound preparation and a settled side, while also noting that Australia appear to be 'in disarray'.
Who has the most pressure on them?
This is an interesting question. On one hand, Ricky Ponting would be excused if he said he feels a mountain of pressure, although, I don't think it is intense as it was pre the 2006/07 Ashes. I feel Ponting will retire from all forms of cricket after the ODI World Cup - our next 18 months is a full fixture list with away tours to Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and South Africa and home fixtures against Zimbabwe, New Zealand and India. That is all in the next 12 months - and throw in the World Cup as well. Not exactly a fixture list that would have you excited, purely because of the fact that you are likely to be exhausted by the halfway mark. Totally absurd - but that is for another thread.
If Australia is to lose, the selectors are likely to say, 'right, we need to rebuild the team, so anyone over 30 is out'. They may well say that if Australia win, but the consquences for players like Ponting, Hussey, Katich are likely to be severe if the Ashes are not won. That is not necessary due to their performance in the series, merely it reflects that fact that all 3 are 35 or more and not likely to feature in to much more international cricket.
Conversely, England appear to be a team on the up - presenting a legitimate claim for the number 1 spot in the next 18 months. In many people's eyes, this series is their best chance for a long time. Failure to win here would be seen as a failure and could well have long reaching consquences with regards to team management and selection.
So, the pressure is on both teams, perhaps, collectively more on England than Australia, simply because many people believe Australia to be at a low ebb.
England's Weakpoints
One could easily argue that England got lucky in South Africa, in a series, they probably deserved to lose 3-1. A comprehensive beating in anyones eyes. Instead, a 1-1 draw was the result. After that it was relatively easy victories against Bangladesh and Pakistan.
The first point of reference is England's 4 man attack. Andy Flower, in the last annual edition of Wisden, said that England's 5 man attack gave them a distinct advantage over Australia's 4 man attack in the 2009 Ashes. Yet, Flower has resorted to a 4 man attack that is probably somewhat over-rated.
It is here that Australia must focus their resources. It is where we have a clear advantage; we have 5 bowlers.
James Anderson is a weak link - who averages 40+ with the ball against Australia.
England's best bowler is Swann, however, overseas finger spinners generally struggle in Australia. If Swann is to struggle here, then England's 4 man attack will fall apart at the seams, as exhaustion hinders the seamers and injury takes its toll.
Australia can break England's back if they neutralise Swann. Of that I have no doubt. This would also impact on England's batsmen, as they become less effective due to fatigue if they spend hours in the field.
Overall
I think Australia have been somewhat under-rated in the press, and this may be to our advantage. We have also come off some hard cricket against India.
I wouldn't discount our chances just yet.
Australia to win 3-0.