Pakistan in Australia

[LIONS then DAYLIGHT]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

It's a big ask, that ball is starting to go reverse so it can quite easily go from 3/170 to 5/190 then with a new ball in 35 overs you really can't go anything other then an Australian victory.

But as I said, what I like about this scenario is that there is a chance we will lose.

We can't baby our attack by setting unattainable scores, because against a better side, such as England or India we probably won't have the luxury of setting 422 to win in the 4th innings.

 

[eddiesmith]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

Where do you find these first class stats eddie?

What site do you use?

Cant find any first class records for chases, only what I can remember, like Victorias 350/4 or whatever it was just a couple of weeks ago

Victoria also made around 390 back in the days of day/night shield games winning late into the night on day 4 against the Blues

For most of my individual stats I use cricket archive, very good for splitting stats by seasons/series and teams played for

 

[Boris]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

Also LtD setting huge scores will only make the opposition knuckle down and go for the draw. Give most international teams a bit of a sniff and they will go for it, presenting and opportunity to get their wickets much easier.

 

[a for effort]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

The declaration suggests that Ponting doesn't think much of the Pakistani batting lineup (rightly or wrongly). That declaration would never, ever have been made against England, South Africa or India, but it's great that it was made, from a spectators POV, because it's at lot more exciting to watch a game where either team can win on the final day.

If Pakistan do happen to win the game, it will be because of Australia has bowled poorly, and not because the declaration was too generous.

 

[LIONS then DAYLIGHT]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

The declaration suggests that Ponting doesn't think much of the Pakistani batting lineup (rightly or wrongly). That declaration would never, ever have been made against England, South Africa or India, but it's great that it was made, from a spectators POV, because it's at lot more exciting to watch a game where either team can win on the final day.

If Pakistan do happen to win the game, it will be because of Australia has bowled poorly, and not because the declaration was too generous.

Lets not beat around the bush, if Pakistan get 422 batting last at the MCG on a drop in wicket then serious questions need to be asked about our bowling attack.

I can totally understand that thought about the declaration, we could have easily batted until tea, with Watson farming the strike and getting another 30 odd to get Pakistan 450+ to chase over 4 sessions.

But what will that achieve with regards to our development? Nothing or very little IMO.

I hate losing, and I can understand the thought of making games 'safe' before going for the win. But these scenarios 'teach' you how to win.

If we lose then so be it, it will allow us to see who is up to it and who isn't.

Peter Siddle will be itching to have a big game tomorrow, would that be the case if we had set Pakistan an unattainable target? He could rock up tomorrow without any pressure knowing that if he doesn't get wickets then Pakistan may draw the game.

Now he will have to play knowing that if we don't get wickets then we will lose, rather then draw, its a big difference. He will want to be the one who wins us the game especially considering his lucklustre form.

This is a match situation now, not a glorified net where the other team isn't going for the win.

 

[a for effort]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

However, it's not always a case of 'aggressive declaration making it easier to win'. If Australia had batted Pakistan out of the game, and given them 4 sessions to chase 450-500 instead of 5 sessions to chase 400, that would have given them the opportunity to set adventurous fields and throw the ball around a bit. Having given the Pakistanis an achievable target, they will no doubt bat more aggressively, hence offering up more opportunities to take wickets, but it also means Australia need to keep an eye on the runs, and perhaps not set the fields and bowl the aggressive lines that they would like to if they had a bigger lead.

If Yousuf and Akmal continue their partnership tomorrow morning, it will raise a different kind of challenge for Ponting, as he will have to keep an eye on the runs as well as the wickets.

 

[LIONS then DAYLIGHT]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

Well then so be it, they need 250 on a day 5 wicket batting last, everything is in our favour. Pakistan will likely be playing their shots, giving us better chance of getting wickets.

As we saw at Adelaide, once we gave up going for the win it really wasn't that hard for us to survive.

I'd prefer to play attacking cricket, with an attitude that either we will win or the other team will win, and that there won't be a draw. Of course, sometimes you will have to settle for a draw for various reasons but at the start of the game I want our team to walk out with the attitude that we will win or the other team will win.

That is conducive to attractive cricket, and it allows players to develop which in turn will mean you win more games down the track.

If we had batted until tea and got 460+ then the chances would be as follows IMO:

Australian Win: 60%

Draw: 40%

Pakistan Win: 0%

Under the current scenario I'd give the chances as follows:

Australian win: 85%

Pakistan Win: 10%

Draw: 5%

What odds would you take?

 

[eddiesmith]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

I would think it would be closer to

Australia 72%
Pakistan 27%
Draw 1%

The only thing going for Pakistan is their most in form batsman and their best overall batsman are both at the crease and Akmal snr did alright in NZ and Ul Haq was unbeaten in the 1st innings, still some batting to come, just need 1 of these 2 currently in to get a good century

 

[breeno]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

I would think it would be closer to

Australia 72%
Pakistan 27%
Draw 1%

The only thing going for Pakistan is their most in form batsman and their best overall batsman are both at the crease and Akmal snr did alright in NZ and Ul Haq was unbeaten in the 1st innings, still some batting to come, just need 1 of these 2 currently in to get a good century

Wasn't Misbah put down early though?

 

[eddiesmith]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

Wasn't Misbah put down early though?

Dropped catches are a part of cricket, without them Watson still wouldnt have a century and Pakistan could be only chasing 370

But I dont know if he was, wasnt watching back then

 

[breeno]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

Dropped catches are a part of cricket, without them Watson still wouldnt have a century and Pakistan could be only chasing 370

But I dont know if he was, wasnt watching back then

All I'm saying is though, one day you take that chance, and he doesn't make 65*. If he offers up chances, he will most likely go early.

 

[gandalf]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

Hey Pakistan batsmen:

*MITCHELL JOHNSON ANGLES ACROSS THE RIGHT HANDER AND IT WILL NEARLY ALWAYS MISS OFF STUMP*

Its amazing, I can't believe the Pakistan team wouldn't have got together last night after stumps and worked this out. First two balls out to balls that didn't need to played. Sure he comes close to the stumps and it looks like you need to play, but any kind of analysis proves that just about every the ball can be safely left.

 

[bushie]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

I hear what your saying,but it does belittle a couple of nice cherries from MJ.
If only batting was as simple as you make it out to be.

 

[gandalf]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

I hear what your saying,but it does belittle a couple of nice cherries from MJ.
If only batting was as simple as you make it out to be.

Batting is all about making adjustments - especially at the professional level. Now Mohammad Yousuf was caught out by a few of those deliveries from Johnson yesterday, and this should have rang some alarm bells amongst the Pakistani brains trust. Now you say Johnson should get credit for bowling a couple of nice cherries, but the Pakistani batsmen are at fault for not doing their homework. If this was a case of unplayable balls viciously moving off the seam, then so be it - not much you can do about that - but it wasn't. Johnson just did exactly what he has been doing all along - bowled a straight ball across the batsman. The Pakistanis should have fired up the video tapes last night and asked themselves "who is our biggest threat" - to which the answer is easy - Mitchell Johnson. Then they should have asked "how can we counter him" such a question would have been answered by studying how he is troubling batsmen - by making them play at balls they don't need to. It is this sort of analysis that teaches batsmen to override their instincts and say "hang on, even though this looks like its in line, I can actually leave this"

 

[bushie]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

Pretty sure that there was a touch of late away swing with at least one of this mornings dismissals.
Couple that with the nerves from a young player trying to win/draw an important test match and the tentativeness of re-starting an innings, or facing your first ball, as the case may be, and you can fully understand the dismissals.
Video analysis is all well and good in the sheds.
Implimenting those plans in the heat of battle, especially when you are just in, is another.

 

[gandalf]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

I'll have to have another look at that swing from Johnson. But it wasn't just the dismissals - the hat trick ball was exactly the same, and there were numerous other play and misses both this morning and yesterday. I just don't see any evidence that the Pakistanis have developed any sort of plan to counter this - leave the ball, come further across, or even come further down the wicket.

On another note - looks likely that Younis Khan will be playing in the next test:

A loss could mean that there is a "70-80%" chance of Younis making it in time for Sydney. If they somehow escape with a draw he could arrive in time for the final Test in Hobart, having played at least one Pentangular match in the interim.

Pakistan send out SOS for Younis Khan | Cricket News | Australia v Pakistan 2009/10 | Cricinfo.com

 

[breeno]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

Khan would definitely strengthen their batting lineup, who do you think will be removed?

 

[gandalf]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

Khan would definitely strengthen their batting lineup, who do you think will be removed?

I would get rid of Imran Farhat - except that he's an opener and they probably want to keep their openers (especially this current pair they've persisted with for a while now). My guess is they'll drop either Faisal Iqbal or Misbah Ul Haq - but probably Iqbal since he is at 3 already (Khan's position)

 

[breeno]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

I would get rid of Imran Farhat - except that he's an opener and they probably want to keep their openers (especially this current pair they've persisted with for a while now). My guess is they'll drop either Faisal Iqbal or Misbah Ul Haq - but probably Iqbal since he is at 3 already (Khan's position)

So that would make it:

Butt
Farhat
Khan
Yousuf
Akmal
Ul-Haq
Akmal

Then the bowlers. I'd be tempted to leave Iqbal in, he was one of few Pakistani's to make some kind of score.

 

[gandalf]

Re: Pakistan in Australia

There would be some sense in dropping Misbah Ul Haq instead - though he probably should keep his place for his first innings score - albeit in slightly easier circumstances since Ponting spread the field whenever he was on strike. Iqbal is an attacking and potentially devastating player - but the main reason I would drop him is because of the way he got out in both innings - very soft IMO, and may not be a bad idea to leave him out to give him time to reflect on that.